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Prediction for CME (2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-12-16T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9854/-1
CME Note: This entry is for two CME in close succession, starting on 2015-12-16T09:24 UT and 2015-12-16T14:24 UT in LASCO C2.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-12-19T15:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-12-18T22:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Dec 17 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 17-Dec 19 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 17-Dec 19 2015

            Dec 17     Dec 18     Dec 19
00-03UT        1          2          5 (G1)
03-06UT        1          1          5 (G1)
06-09UT        1          1          4     
09-12UT        1          1          4     
12-15UT        1          1          3     
15-18UT        1          1          3     
18-21UT        2          3          3     
21-00UT        2          5 (G1)     3     

Rationale: Late on day two (18 Dec)/early on day three (19 Dec) two CMEs
from 16 Dec described in previous discussions, are expected to impact
Earth's magnetosphere, likely producing G1-Minor storm conditions late
on 18 Dec and early on 19 Dec.

Lead Time: 56.15 hour(s)
Difference: 17.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-12-17T07:18Z

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